Skip to main content

Global Macro Outlook Q3 2023: The long and winding road

Macroeconomic Strategy Team

6 July 2023

Key takeaways

  • Recession postponed, not canceled—Despite the aggressive policy tightening we’ve seen so far, economic activity in developed economies proved to be more resilient than expected amid a strong rebound in the services sector.
  • Inflation is still too sticky at uncomfortable levels—While headline inflation is easing, core inflation remains stubbornly high, and it isn’t just due to services inflation: Goods inflation is inflecting higher after a period of decline.
  • We believe central bank policy easing will be more gradual than consensus expectations—From the Bank of Canada to the Reserve Bank of Australia to Bank Negara Malaysia to the U.S. Federal Reserve, central banks around the world are proving to be more hawkish than expected.
  • Shifting geopolitics and the need for a new market playbook—There are signs that we’re entering a new global regime, requiring a rethink of how risk assets respond to changes in the macro backdrop. To be forewarned is to be forearmed. We continue to believe:

1. The market is premature in its pricing of dovish pivots from central banks, both in terms of timing and magnitude.

2. There’s a risk that even if the Fed pauses in the coming months, the next move could be more tightening, not easing.

3. Markets need to reassess the central bank put for asset prices.


Download the full PDF



  • The Rebound after the Storm

    With potentially greater clarity in movement of rates and currency, credit should lead on stronger government policy, resilient economic buoyancy, and an evolving Asian credit landscape.  

    Read more
  • Multi-Assets: Opportunities await as global rates take new turns

    Despite elevated inflation and higher interest rates, investors can watch for key events in 2023 that can present opportunities. We describe our dynamic and strategic asset allocation views and how a multi-asset outcome-oriented approach may help investors during market uncertainty.

    Read more
  • Greater China Equities: Pivots, positioning and pace forward

    It has been an eventful year for Greater China stock markets, with domestic and global events triggering broad-based weakness and elevated volatility in Mainland China (China), Hong Kong, and Taiwan. In this 2023 outlook, we describe the 3 Ps that set the tone for the new year: pivots, positioning and pace forward.

    Read more
See all
  • Disadvantages of fixed deposit: is fixed income a better option?

    What is a Fixed Deposit? What is Fixed Income? We explain why is fixed income now a potentially better option than fixed deposits.

    Read more
  • Seven questions about dividends (with dividend yield formula)

    Dividends can be a significant source of returns for equity investors. What are dividends? How do dividends fit into portfolio construction? 

    Read more
  • How to boost your income with these options

    With rising inflation, earning cash deposit rates may not be enough. We look for sources of income. Discover options to boost your income before it's too late!

    Read more
See all