Macroeconomic Strategy Team
6 July 2023
Key takeaways
1. The market is premature in its pricing of dovish pivots from central banks, both in terms of timing and magnitude.
2. There’s a risk that even if the Fed pauses in the coming months, the next move could be more tightening, not easing.
3. Markets need to reassess the central bank put for asset prices.
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It has been an eventful year for Greater China stock markets, with domestic and global events triggering broad-based weakness and elevated volatility in Mainland China (China), Hong Kong, and Taiwan. In this 2023 outlook, we describe the 3 Ps that set the tone for the new year: pivots, positioning and pace forward.
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