Skip to main content
Back

Global Macro Outlook Q3 2023: The long and winding road

Macroeconomic Strategy Team

6 July 2023

Key takeaways

  • Recession postponed, not canceled—Despite the aggressive policy tightening we’ve seen so far, economic activity in developed economies proved to be more resilient than expected amid a strong rebound in the services sector.
  • Inflation is still too sticky at uncomfortable levels—While headline inflation is easing, core inflation remains stubbornly high, and it isn’t just due to services inflation: Goods inflation is inflecting higher after a period of decline.
  • We believe central bank policy easing will be more gradual than consensus expectations—From the Bank of Canada to the Reserve Bank of Australia to Bank Negara Malaysia to the U.S. Federal Reserve, central banks around the world are proving to be more hawkish than expected.
  • Shifting geopolitics and the need for a new market playbook—There are signs that we’re entering a new global regime, requiring a rethink of how risk assets respond to changes in the macro backdrop. To be forewarned is to be forearmed. We continue to believe:

1. The market is premature in its pricing of dovish pivots from central banks, both in terms of timing and magnitude.

2. There’s a risk that even if the Fed pauses in the coming months, the next move could be more tightening, not easing.

3. Markets need to reassess the central bank put for asset prices.

 

Download the full PDF

 

 

  • 2026 Global healthcare equities outlook: Innovation supports healthcare’s long term case

    Global healthcare equities showed resilience amid 2025 volatility. The defensive characteristics, coupled with remarkable therapeutic innovations in the biopharmaceutical, MedTech, and tools sub-segments of this sector, will continue to be rewarded with capital appreciation over a full market cycle. Current valuations relative to the broader market make for an attractive entry point today, and periods like this tend to lead to outperformance for healthcare stocks over the long term.

    Read more
  • Semiconductors poised for long-term growth amid AI boom

    The global semiconductor industry remains strong – arguably the most robust we have seen in over three decades. This strength is supported by cutting-edge innovation, rising revenues and robust capital spending. While risks remain, the outlook for 2026 appears constructive, with demand for artificial intelligence (AI) applications showing few signs of slowing. Beyond AI, the non-AI markets could be poised for positive revisions as cyclical recovery gains traction after several years of consolidation.

    Read more
  • 2026 Outlook: Clearer picture, better growth

    This year’s outlook spotlights a world in flux – U.S. stimulus, Europe’s rebound, China’s policy pivots, and Japan’s innovation surge all shape a landscape full of both opportunities and challenges.

    Read more
See all
  • 5 ways a budget plan can help you manage your finances

    We all know approximately how much money we need each month. However, without a clear spending strategy, you could see a shortfall in savings, face a lack of day-to-day cash, or be caught off guard by unexpected costs. That’s why it’s important to have an effective budget plan that will give you control over your finances.

    Read more
  • Risk Diversification

    There is no free lunch. But Risk Diversification comes close in investing. A diversified portfolio was shown to optimize returns with lower volatility in the long run.

    Read more
  • Get started with managing your personal finances

    People often view managing their personal finances as a complicated process. In fact, it’s a lot more straightforward – it’s organising your money by establishing a budget that accounts for current expenditure, as well as building a strategy for the years ahead to achieve your financial goals. In this introductory article, we will provide steps for creating a financial plan and underscore the importance of managing your money effectively.

    Read more
See all