7 January 2022
Our economic road map for 2022 suggests that the first six months of the year could be problematic, particularly when compared with 2021: Price pressures look as though they might ease, but inflation could remain uncomfortably high for the first few months of the year. This is a continuation of the stagflationary narrative that persisted in the second half of last year, and the emergence of the Omicron variant could tip us further in that direction.
Prospects for the second half of 2022 look better, as inventory rebuilds, and the unwinding of supply chain disruptions could fuel a more sustainable recovery. An improved growth picture and slower inflation should bring us back to a Goldilocks regime, which should be far better for market returns and general risk assets.
It isn’t particularly fashionable or click-worthy to admit that we have less confidence in our base-case projection than normal, but we believe it’s important to acknowledge the highly uncertain environment that we’re in as we head into a year dominated by a very long list of known unknowns.
To learn more about the macroeconomic themes for North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America, download the full edition.
The Rebound after the Storm
With potentially greater clarity in movement of rates and currency, credit should lead on stronger government policy, resilient economic buoyancy, and an evolving Asian credit landscape.
Multi-Assets: Opportunities await as global rates take new turns
Despite elevated inflation and higher interest rates, investors can watch for key events in 2023 that can present opportunities. We describe our dynamic and strategic asset allocation views and how a multi-asset outcome-oriented approach may help investors during market uncertainty.
Greater China Equities: Pivots, positioning and pace forward
It has been an eventful year for Greater China stock markets, with domestic and global events triggering broad-based weakness and elevated volatility in Mainland China (China), Hong Kong, and Taiwan. In this 2023 outlook, we describe the 3 Ps that set the tone for the new year: pivots, positioning and pace forward.
Global Healthcare: Enhanced innovation in a post-COVID environment
We discuss the attractiveness of allocating to the healthcare sector in the current economic environment and outlines why it warrants a long-term allocation.
What’s next for China’s property sector?
The road ahead is likely to be bumpy but select opportunities still exist in the US-dollar high-yield bond space. Robust credit selection and valuation assessment have become even more important considerations in the current market environment.
The Rebound after the Storm
With potentially greater clarity in movement of rates and currency, credit should lead on stronger government policy, resilient economic buoyancy, and an evolving Asian credit landscape.